Michael Klare: I'll take a bunch of questions. And then, at some point; I'll let people who want to get up and move around, to do so. And, the rest of you. But, let me take a few questions, while you're all seated. One, two, three, four. And then, we'll see. One, two -
Man #1: Is it your opinion that if Kerry is elected, he would be able to reverse this policy that goes back to Roosevelt?
Michael Klare: He has - Kerry has said; he at least has identified the relationship with Saudi Arabia, as being crucial. And so, I'm saying; that we have to back off from this steep relationship with Saudi Arabia. And, he talks about moving away from dependence on Middle Eastern oil. But, I don't think he quite grasps, or has stated the reality; that we can't break our dependence on Middle Eastern oil, and somehow go about our business. That's the problem. Because, too much of the world's oil is in the Middle East. If we break with the Middle East; it means breaking with oil, as the centerpiece of our energy system. What he has to be saying is; we have to plan to move beyond petroleum, as the center of our energy system. And, move very rapidly towards a post petroleum economy. He says that. But, not with the vigor that's going to be necessary. Yeah -
Man #2: Can you just address two things? One is Iran. And, the other is the exploding Chinese demand.
Michael Klare: So, one question is about Iran. The Iran aspect of this. And, the other; about China's role in all of this. Iran is the world's third largest oil producer, after Saudi Arabia. Or, - I should say, not producer, but reserves. Saudi Arabia first. Iraq second. Iran third. And, any plan for the United States to increase oil consumption each year, requires that more and more and more of our oil comes form the Persian Gulf. And, some of it is going to have to come from Iran. And, if not ours, then somebody; so, that we can get all the Saudi oil. Or, something like that.
And Bush, more or less, has called for regime change in Iran. He hasn't used those words. But, he said; we would like to see a change in government there. One that would be more friendly to us. And, therefore, open it up to development, by American oil companies. Now, as in Iraq; the discourse will be about Weapons of Mass Destruction. And, this time, it's a little bit more problematical. The Iranians - I don't believe they're pursuing nuclear weapons, now. But, they're engaging in the preliminary steps, that might give them that option. Or, it could be made to look that way. There's enough ambiguity. But, again, I think what you have to read - what they really want to talk about, is Iran's threat to the Persian Gulf. Iran has a border on the Strait of Hormus. The little bit of narrow waterway, that connects the Persian Gulf, with the rest of the world. And, all the oil tankers go right past Iranian missile batteries. And, so, he will talk about Iran's military threat. But, it's Iran as a threat to American dominance of the Gulf. There's alot more that I could say. But, let me leave it at that.
And, secondly, about China; this is the really interesting new factor in this large equation. And, the sad thing in my mind is; that the American model that I talked about, is so successful in the eyes of the rest of the world. That when people join the middle class in China or India. Which is coming right on the heels of China. The first thing they want to do is to buy an American type automobile. That is the way in which you demonstrate that you've made it into the middle class, is to copy our way of life that way.
And so, instead of building railroads and alternative transportation. The Communist Party of China, which is nervous about it's popularity these days, is doing everything it can to facilitate car ownership by the rising middle class. Hoping that if people buy cars, they won't demonstrate for freedom and democracy. And, things like that. (audience laughs) And, so then - they're making it easier to do that. And, so, China needs huge amounts more of oil. And, they have much less than we do. And, they're running out of it more quickly. And, so, China has determined that the place that's it's going to get it's oil from, is the Caspian Sea. And, from Iran. And, is copying us, in another way. And, this is what I find so threatening. The way we try to protect our oil is, to form military alliances with friendly regimes in the countries of interest - Saudi Arabia.
The Chinese are copying us, by making military alliances and providing arms to Iran, and Kazakhstan. And, Kirgastan, and Uzbekistan. And, so, we're pursuing the same countries. So, an arms race is now developing in the Caspian Sea. And, in my mind; this is becoming the most dangerous place in the world. Because, you have - not super powers; but, great powers, competing for influence, in an area that's absolutely explosive with ethnic tensions. Chechnya, is one little piece of a much larger patchwork of ethnic volatility. And, any of these could spark - and, Russia is involved, too. Because, Russia wants it's finger on all of this.
So, I can't - I mean, as a historian; you have to look back to the 19th century. Or, the early 20th century. To find a time, where three great powers, all contending in the same area, at the same time. With troops on the ground. We have troops in that area. The Russians have troops there. The Chinese are moving in. There's been nothing like that, since the early - before World War One. And, I think this is the new pre-World War One situation. I had recognized two people. One, and then two.
Man #3 : I just wanted to say; history is just repeating itself. In the 20's and 30's; there were the Royal Air Force. The troops coming back from Iraq. The British had military forces in Iraq, and Iran.
Michael Klare: You know, I got a message on a talk show Friday, from a Vietnam veteran. Who said; that when he went to Vietnam in a troop ship, through the South China Sea in the 1960's. He saw oil wells out there. And, he said; is there something about oil in Vietnam? And, in fact; those oil wells are now claimed by China. Now, China has claimed the entire South China Sea. And, we've said; we'll go to war, if China interferes with oil development in the South China Sea. I had recognized - and then, you -
Man #4: Can you talk about the conflict between the U.S. government and Standard Oil, intially? And, the Rothschild family? Especially, on how that may play out in the upcoming election?
Michael Klare: Oh, geez. You're stretching my knowledge. I'm sorry. Alot of this is in the book, "The Prize", by Daniel Yuragen. Which, I read. And, other books. But, it's dim in my memory. I'm really sorry. I just can't do justice to that question. If there's something you want to ask me, that I'd feel better about, I'm happy to. (audience laughs) I'm sorry. But, I'm just not one hundred percent sure.
The Rothschilds, of course, were interested in Bachu. That's where they're - and, the Nobel family. The money for the Nobel Peace Prize comes from. And, the oil of Bachu. That's where Chechnya is. And, where American troops are in Georgia. That same region. Pursuing the same oil today, that the Rothschilds and the Nobel family were seeking. Bachu and the caucuses, before World War One. That much, I recall. But, that's all I think I can do justice to. Yes, please.
Man #5: If George Bush had a brain transplant and he called you up and said; Michael, how do we get out of this. Iraq, with the big oil situation. What would be your response?
Michael Klare: Well, you know that that's funny. (audience laughs) The question was about George Bush. What he would say. You know - I could go to his speeches. And, find the right words. The problem - he said that, you know - someday, we'll have to move beyond oil. He has said this. He acknowledged it. But, he said; you know, this is something that our great grandchildren will have to cope with. In the meantime, we can go on the way you are. We'll spend a little money on fuel cells. So, the problem is to take his words and say; not fifty years from now, George. What you say now. Stop everything you're doing. And, move rapidly to develop the alternatives to petroleum. He talks about what's necessary. He really does. Buried in his speeches. But, he makes it seem, as if it hits his - it's exactly the same with global warming. If you push him hard enough, he'll say; well, yes. You know, there are some scientific evidence, that this is a problem. But, we're not - you know, we have time to solve it.
Meanwhile, by the time they get around to it; the earth - it will be irredeemable, irreversible. So, it's a matter of timing. Of urgency. We have to make those changes now. We can't afford to wait. That's what I would say. Please, one, two. And, then three. And then, I'll stop. I promise, after that. (audience laughs) Yes.
Woman #1:What power do NATO Allies, quote unquote, have to help us? With this situation?
Michael Klare: Oh, none.
Woman #1: None at all?
Michael Klare: Yeah. (audience laughs) Next question?
Woman #1: Even if we ever hope to get them involved, it's not going to do much?
Michael Klare: No. (audience laughs) No, this is too - the European countries, have already recognized what I was saying. That the petroleum era, is drawing to a close. And, you know, we could argue if you want - whether some people think where there now. That we've reached the peak point of oil production. And, it's going to go down. Some people say; we have ten more years. Some people have said twenty years. Nobody is saying much more than that. And then, it will start declining. And, in historical terms; that's not very much.
The Europeans were saying; we understand that the petroleum era, is drawing to a close. And, we're going to invest in railroads. And, in hydrogen, and wind power. So, when this moment comes - when our great grandchildren are facing this problem; Europe will have wind power galore, for their needs. And, we're going to be stuck with SUV's, stranded in the street. (audience laughs) Because, there's no oil for them. Yes, please?
Man #6 : I have a timing question. There's a supply and demand issue. We know China's growing. So, you know the numbers. Secondly, let's say we have the wisest President in the world, after the next election. And, he says; crash program. That gives us how many years, in which we still have to have foreign policy that gets us the oil we need. And, the rest of the world needs. And, China needs. In other words; the difficult foreign policy, is not going to go away. Even if you have a crash program.
Michael Klare: Right. Well, the fact is; that there's alot - you know, there are things that we can do, right away to make a difference. Well, it can't make a big difference, right away. But, you could start requiring that the next model year of automobiles. That may be 2006, or 2007. Whatever it is. Have to have twice the fuel efficiency. Is that technically possible? Absolutely. So, you have to require that. And, people are going to hold onto their SUV's, for a while. But, you encourage people - when it's time to trade it in; they must get a more fuel efficient vehicle. And, all kinds of other subsidized hybrids, through tax breaks. Subsidized public transit. There's alot that we could do, right away. To reduce our day to day intake.
And, if we move rapidly in that direction. You know, if we really make a big stride to reduce day to day consumption; what we have, could be stretched out longer. To the generation. It's gonna take a generation, before the new technologies, really are available on a large enough scale. I mean, hybrids are available now. And, everybody should - if they don't have one; the next car you get, should be a hybrid. But, take ten years, before people trade in their cars. But, by that time, there will be enough of these new technology vehicles available. So, if we stretch out what we have, by reducing consumption; we could last until the new technologies are available.
My indictment of the Bush strategy is; he's saying, if you don't have to do that. Go on, wasting oil for the next twenty years. By that time, the problem will be fixed. Well, it's not gonna be fixed. So, twenty years from now; we're really gonna face a mammoth crisis. Or, much sooner than that. And, the last question? Christine?
Woman #2 (Christine): I wanted to hear you talk about peak oil. So, that's great. But, also; you should know that Michael is in a movie, that will be available in the community this fall. It's called, "The End of Suburbia". And, Michael speaks, along with a whole panel of international scientists. And, in a couple of days, it will be shown at The Unitarian Society on October 3rd. And, at Pathways on September 22nd. It's really - it picks up, just where we're ending. It's really, really important, to watch this film. And, it can be great things in the future.
Michael Klare: That strikes me, as a good point to finish. You've been very patient. (audience applauds & )Thank you. Thank you.
End of Question & Answer
- 1150 reads
