Oil

In this engrossing discussion with Dr. Helen Caldicott, Richard Heinberg explains the situation of Peak Oil, and reminds us just how reliant our society is on the finite resources of oil, coal and gas.

Richard Heinberg identifies the essential axioms of sustainability and ties them to current economic trends such as the high and volatile prices of oil and other commodities. Species survival will require more than "Sustainability Lite," a vague commitment to more environmentally benign practices, but instead an all-encompassing effort to live within the ultimate resource limits of the planet.

Chris Skrebowski of the UK Petroleum Review, director of PeakOil Consulting and author of the Megaprojects report, speaks with GPM's Julian Darley and offers some unusual analysis of the recent largest oil price rise in history, along with an explanation of the extraordinary run up in diesel prices and how soon we may enter oil decline.

The Reality Report interviews Daniel Lerch, author of Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty, the first major local government guidebook on peak oil and global warming. The interview opens with a discussion of the responsibilities and roles of local government, where important decisions are made regarding land use, transportation, water systems, schools and emergency services. It reviews how systems thinking can be used to understand the impacts that "energy uncertainty" will have on basic government services, and covers what some local governments in the U.S. and Canada are already doing in repsonse to peak oil. With transcript.

The real value of oil is "way, way, way above $80" according to a leading analyst. Paul Horsnell, head of commodities research for Barclays Capital, says it is hard to see the price falling below $80, even allowing for a lot of pessimism about the economy, and that the long run price is likely to be in triple digits – but not because of resource constraints. At least not immediately.

This morning I was awakened at 6:30 by a robot; - not a wheeled electronic valet named "Robbie" bringing me orange juice and toast, but an automated fax machine dialing my phone number and beeping expectantly into my answering machine, hoping to provide me with some helpful advertisement. While I won't go so far as to say the experience ruined my day, it nevertheless cost me some sleep and provoked me to reflect somewhat darkly on our species' present and future relationship with technology.

"In terms of resolving these two problems of peak fossil fuels and climate change... mitigation policies for peak oil, peak coal and peak gas should be done in tandem with mitigation policies for climate change. And I think there's no reason that that shouldn't happen. In fact it makes the most sense to me." NASA research scientist Dr. Pushker Kharecha speaks with David Room about "Implications of 'peak oil' for atmospheric CO₂ and climate," a paper Kharecha co-wrote with one of the world's foremost climate scientists, Dr. James Hansen. The paper, which has been submitted for peer-reviewed publication in a scientific journal, is one of few that consider both climate instability and oil depletion.

Reserves growth in existing oilfields is largely illusory and will not put off the date of peak oil, according to BP’s former Chief Petroleum Engineer. Speaking at an investment conference organized by 13D Research in New York, Jeremy Gilbert argued that although reserves growth has added twice as much oil to reserves than has discovery over the past 25 years, this apparently reassuring historical trend is no guarantee of the future.

When the oil price soared to over $99 per barrel earlier this year, the cause was not surging demand, nor speculation, nor even impending peak oil, but a forecasting error by the International Energy Agency. That's according to a presentation by veteran analyst Henry Groppe, one of the most independent thinkers in the oil patch, at an investment conference organized by 13D Research in New York last week. NEW: A transcript of this interview is now available.

Higher energy costs and a crisis of credit as a result of huge US debt levels will cause the US and global economies to contract in the near future. On this edition of the Reality Report, Nate Hagens of The Oil Drum discusses these stresses and possible implications for responses to peak oil. NEW: A transcript of this interview is now available.