economy

Ron Cooke, the Cultural Economist, runs down the list of government agencies that should have seen this economic crisis coming.

Today's guest is scientist and financial expert Chris Martenson, here to explain how the financial crisis is a predictable outcome of a money system requiring exponential growth on a finite planet.

Drawing parallels with the current financial meltdown, Matthew Simmons, the CEO of Simmons & Company International, expresses his alarm about gasoline stocks being the lowest in several decades and refinery production down following recent hurricanes. He warns that if there were a run on the "energy bank" by everyone topping off their gasoline tanks, the U.S. would be out of fuel in three days, and grocery shelves largely emptied in a week. In an interview plus excerpts from his presentation at the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO-USA) conference on September 22, 2008, Matt highlights the risks and vulnerabilities in the finished oil products system, and answers audience questions. Episode 130.

Paul and Sarah Edwards are authors of a timely book "Middle-Class Lifeboat: Careers and Life Choices for Navigating a Changing Economy." In a world of decreasing resources, they ask, how do we financially support ourselves while moving towards sustainable lives? Emphasizing independent income sources, they consider dozens of possible careers from basic services to local-scale technologies. Life choices include lowering costs through simplifying, getting out of debt, and demonetizing (e.g., bartering). Or one can consider an "off-the-map" lifestyle like living abroad, off-grid, or an intentional community. This downturn is not just a cycle, they emphasize: it heralds a sea change. Episode 127.

Are we in the perfect financial storm? Marc Cuniberti, a market analyst and host of "Money Matters" on our local community radio station KVMR, thinks so. Marc talks about the cause of inflation (rising prices are just a symptom) and how you can stop it with a candy bar! He discusses strategies to protect and even make money in a weakening economy -- like getting out of debt and investing in physical things you really need. In the stock market, he suggests dividend paying stocks, stressing the importance of using interest compounding in your favor: $100 saved today with an 8% return will grow to $200 in 9 years. Also read Janaia's blog about this conversation. Episode 118.

Renowned political analyst Kevin Phillips argues successive administrations have imperiled the US economy by a combination of shortsighted policies and a trend against regulation. These include unparalleled credit card debts, the expansion of financial industries such as hedge funds, ballooning national debts, and deliberately altering statistics like inflation and unemployment to mask the accurate picture.

Gail Tverberg is known on the website The Oil Drum as Gail the Actuary. She created this presentation for a public health program called "Converging Environmental Crises: A Teach-in on Energy, Climate Change, Water, Agriculture and Population." It explains the large economic changes that even a minor energy downturn could cause. Transcript available.

It's becoming increasingly clear that 2008 will be a catastrophic year for the US economy, and therefore probably for that of the world as a whole. The reasons boil down to two: continuing and snowballing fallout from the subprime mortgage fiasco (exacerbated by an orgy of debt-leveraging), and record-high, continuously advancing oil prices. This brief portion of the February Museletter is so topical it bears immediate posting.

In early November, 2007, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced the United States had achieved a third quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 3.9 percent. That number was later updated to 4.9 percent. Those numbers set off my “reasonable test” alarm. How, I wondered, with an accelerating rate of inflation and declining economic activity, could the United States turn in such a stellar performance? The BEA’s report flunked the reasonable test.

Higher energy costs and a crisis of credit as a result of huge US debt levels will cause the US and global economies to contract in the near future. On this edition of the Reality Report, Nate Hagens of The Oil Drum discusses these stresses and possible implications for responses to peak oil. NEW: A transcript of this interview is now available.